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# Voting on Belonging: The Mental Health Toll of Alberta's Referendum
- URL: https://blog.theralist.ca/voting-on-belonging-the-mental-health-toll-of-albertas-referendum/
- Published: 2026-10-07T17:13:43.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-07T17:13:43.000Z
- Description: No study has yet measured the mental health toll of Alberta's October 19 referendum, but a lost friendship, wary neighbours and anxious newcomers show the pressure. Here is what reporting and research from other votes say.
- Author: Theralist

As far as this reporting could find, no study has yet measured the mental health toll of Alberta's October 19 referendum, but the pressure is already visible in a lost friendship, tense family conversations, wary neighbours and newcomers who say they feel less sure they belong.

## Ten questions, one feeling of uncertainty

On October 19, Albertans answer ten questions. Five deal with immigration and voting, four with constitutional change, and one asks whether Alberta should remain a province or start a legal process toward a binding separation vote (Mason, 2026). That last question changes nothing on its own. A vote for the second option would direct the government to begin the legal process toward a later, binding vote, and any separation would still have to follow the Constitution (Mason, 2026).

The polls point one way. An Ipsos poll for Global News in late September had 70 per cent of Albertans planning to vote to remain and 20 per cent to start the process (Bartko, 2026). Every poll in a running tally since May shows "remain" ahead by at least 25 percentage points (*2026 Alberta Independence Referendum*, n.d.). Even so, Angus Reid found in February that about four in five Albertans said their minds were mostly made up, and that stay and leave voters rely on very different sources of information (Angus Reid Institute, 2026). For many people, a vote that may not change the law is still part of a larger conversation about identity and belonging (Alota, 2026).

The immigration questions are where that conversation lands hardest. They ask whether Alberta should require immigration status for provincially funded programs such as health care and education (question 2), impose a 12-month wait on temporary residents before some social supports (question 3), and charge temporary residents and their families a fee or premium for health care and education (question 4) (Mason, 2026). None is binding, and several key terms, such as "Alberta-approved" immigration status, are not defined (Mason, 2026). University of Alberta political scientist Jared Wesley told New Canadian Media that some newcomers increasingly experience belonging as conditional (Alota, 2026).

## Strain at home and in the community

Researchers have not published data on referendum-related distress in Alberta that this reporting could find, so the clearest evidence is what people describe to reporters. It points to strain in friendships, families and neighbourhoods, and it is anecdotal, not measured.

In Olds, Christine Ewing, who has a "Forever Canadian" sign on her fence, said a good friend of decades is a friend no more because she is a separatist. Cheryl Morgan, who supports starting the separation process, said she and her father, who opposes it, try not to provoke each other, and that she will always love him (Le, 2026). Both said they worry about publicly showing where they stand. Ewing said putting up the sign makes you feel potentially targeted, and Morgan said some separation supporters hold back out of fear of retaliation and judgment (Le, 2026).

The pressure runs across both camps. Keith Wilson, co-leader of the pro-separatist Let Alberta Decide campaign, said some supporters avoid lawn signs out of fear their car will be keyed, and The Canadian Press reported regular accounts on social media of signs on both sides being stolen or vandalized. Someone shattered a window on the Forever Canadian campaign's "Unity Bus," and a summer parade in Sundre was cancelled after organizers were harassed (Johnson, 2026a).

Confusion adds to the load. A political scientist speaking at a Calgary information night said many people are confused or overwhelmed by the number of questions and the complexity of the process (DePatie, 2026). An Angus Reid poll cited by New Canadian Media found 51 per cent of Albertans considered the referendum questions confusing (Alota, 2026).

Money worries feed the same strain. Pollster David Coletto of Abacus Data, which has studied what it calls a "precarity mindset" in Canada, says voters are more anxious and face more economic uncertainty than in the 1990s (Morrison, 2025). Athabasca University's Jason Foster told Human Resources Director in 2025 that talk of separatism and pulling out of the Canada Pension Plan was causing angst and anxiety among workers (Thomas, 2025).

## Who carries the most weight

**Newcomers and temporary residents.** Stop Hate AB executive director Nina Saini said reports to the group's online tool are up 86.6 per cent since the first quarter of 2026, and that people feel a lack of belonging, anxiety and uncertainty. Messages reported to the group included "Prepare to leave your new home after the referendum" (Kavanagh, 2026). Edmonton's police hate crimes unit recorded 43 hate crimes as of August 27, compared with 60 in all of 2025, and Sister Dialogue, which supports Muslim women, says more people are seeking mental health support (Kavanagh, 2026). University of Calgary researcher Bukola Salami said her analysis of Statistics Canada data found that community belonging and income security are among the strongest determinants of immigrant mental health. She warned that anti-immigrant rhetoric creates conditions in which racism and discrimination are more likely to flourish (Alota, 2026). For people on temporary status, questions 2 to 4 would, if put into law, change what they can access or pay for (Mason, 2026).

**First Nations.** A May court ruling found the province had failed in its duty to consult First Nations before approving a separation petition, and the government has appealed (Mason, 2026; Shields & Boghosian, 2026). First Nations groups are now running get-out-the-vote efforts. Angel Houle of the Confederacy of Treaty Six First Nations said it is important to let everyone know that silence could be consent in this referendum. Tsuut'ina Nation Head Chief Ellery Starlight said the division the vote has brought has been destructive and asked why only First Nations are running this kind of campaign (Johnson, 2026b). This reporting found no referendum-specific data on First Nations mental health.

**Francophone Albertans.** The francophone association ACFA said the debate raises important concerns about the stability of institutions, services and the Canadian framework that protects francophone minority communities. It said the 10th question risks adding to the current climate of uncertainty (Association canadienne-française de l'Alberta \[ACFA\], 2026).

**2SLGBTQ+ Albertans.** Uncloseted Media reported that LGBTQ people have legitimate cause for concern because federal protections, including the Charter, would no longer apply in an independent Alberta (Uncloseted Media, 2026). A police spokesperson said LGBTQ2S+ people were among the five groups most affected by hate crimes in Edmonton this year (Kavanagh, 2026). Alberta-specific mental health data are missing here too, but the Australian research below shows why the worry matters.

## What other votes tell us

Research from other campaigns cannot be applied to Alberta directly, but it suggests that long public votes on identity and belonging can raise distress, most of all for the people being debated.

- **Brexit.** After England's 2016 vote to leave the European Union, antidepressant prescribing rose 13.4 per cent relative to other drug classes. The study observed an association and did not prove cause and effect, and the authors urged caution in interpreting it (HealthDay News, 2018; Vandoros et al., 2019).
- **Australia's 2017 marriage postal survey.** The closest parallel to Alberta's immigration questions, because the group being debated could not simply vote the issue away. A survey of 1,305 lesbian, gay and bisexual Australians found that more frequent exposure to negative media messages was associated with greater psychological distress. The link was weaker among people who believed those close to them supported same-sex marriage (Verrelli et al., 2019). Lead author Stefano Verrelli told ABC that people who saw negative messages more than once a day had distress levels 58 per cent higher than those who saw them once a week (Metherell, 2019).
- **U.S. elections.** The American Psychological Association (APA, 2024) found that 69 per cent of adults called the 2024 presidential election a significant source of stress, and 32 per cent said the political climate had strained their relationships with family members.
- **Scotland, 2014.** A survey of Scottish adults taken days before the independence referendum found that feeling personally worse off, perceiving discrimination against Scots and feeling angry and frustrated about it were each linked to lower life satisfaction. As a one-time survey, it shows association, not cause (Abrams et al., 2020).

Three cautions apply. These studies measured different votes in different places, so their numbers are not Alberta numbers. Most are one-time surveys or prescription data that show association rather than cause. And Alberta's question 10 only starts a process, which may prolong uncertainty instead of ending it.

## Coping, and where to get help

The Australian findings suggest two levers: how much negative campaign content you take in, and whether the people close to you are supportive (Metherell, 2019; Verrelli et al., 2019). The steps below are general self-care suggestions, not findings from those studies.

1. **Ration your exposure.** Pick set times for news, turn off push alerts and skip comment sections.
2. **Lean on supportive people.** In the Australian study, believing that people close to you were supportive was linked to a weaker effect from negative messages (Verrelli et al., 2019).
3. **Choose the relationship over the argument.** Ask what experience shaped the other person's view, share stories instead of statistics, and agree on topics that are off the table at family gatherings.
4. **Act on what you can control.** Vote, volunteer or check a claim at its source, then step away.

Free, confidential supports in Alberta (see Alberta Health Services, n.d.; City of Calgary, n.d.; Hope for Wellness Helpline, n.d., for current listings):

| Service                                                       | How to reach it                          |
| ------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------- |
| Alberta Mental Health Help Line                               | 1-877-303-2642, 24/7                     |
| 988 Suicide Crisis Helpline                                   | Call or text 9-8-8, 24/7                 |
| 211 Alberta                                                   | Call 2-1-1 or chat at ab.211.ca, 24/7    |
| Distress Centre Calgary                                       | 403-266-4357                             |
| Kids Help Phone                                               | 1-800-668-6868 or text CONNECT to 686868 |
| Hope for Wellness Helpline (Indigenous peoples across Canada) | 1-855-242-3310                           |

## References

*2026 Alberta independence referendum*. (n.d.). In *Wikipedia*. Retrieved October 7, 2026, from [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026\_Alberta\_independence\_referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%5FAlberta%5Findependence%5Freferendum?ref=blog.theralist.ca)

Abrams, D., Travaglino, G. A., Grant, P. R., Templeton, A., Bennett, M., & Lalot, F. (2020). Mobilizing IDEAS in the Scottish referendum: Predicting voting intention and well-being with the identity-deprivation-efficacy-action-subjective well-being model. *British Journal of Social Psychology, 59*(2), 425–446\. [https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12355](https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12355?ref=blog.theralist.ca)

Alberta Health Services. (n.d.). *Help in tough times*. [https://www.albertahealthservices.ca/amh/page16759.aspx](https://www.albertahealthservices.ca/amh/page16759.aspx?ref=blog.theralist.ca)

Alota, A. (2026, June 2). *As Alberta flirts with separation, debates over immigration intensify*. New Canadian Media. [https://newcanadianmedia.ca/as-alberta-flirts-with-separation-debates-over-immigration-intensify/](https://newcanadianmedia.ca/as-alberta-flirts-with-separation-debates-over-immigration-intensify/?ref=blog.theralist.ca)

American Psychological Association. (2024). *Stress in America 2024: A nation in political turmoil*. [https://www.apa.org/pubs/reports/stress-in-america/2024](https://www.apa.org/pubs/reports/stress-in-america/2024?ref=blog.theralist.ca)

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*Cover photo: Igor Kyryliuk and Tetiana Kravchenko, via* [*Unsplash*](https://unsplash.com/photos/brown-grass-field-under-gray-clouds-b6DAMF9vZcA?ref=blog.theralist.ca)*.*